The Political Hurricane Is Just Getting Started

10 thoughts on where the 2024 race might go from here

Image generated by DALL-E.

Contributor Johan Pregmo’s recent critique of Western pro-Palestine activism has been republished by Future of Jewish.

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What a whirlwind these past few weeks have been! President Joe Biden, blessedly, is out of the 2024 race. Back in January, History Impossible podcast host Alexander von Sternberg and I co-wrote a piece in which we laid out what we saw as the best case political scenarios for both Trump and Biden. I took it upon myself to write the “Why Biden Could Win in 2024” part. In light of the past month’s events, I've been razzed a bit over that section. Although I peppered the essay with caveats, nuance, and hedges, these things never look great in hindsight when the winds end up blowing in a different direction.

The path to victory I saw for Biden was predicated on a few things: the economy continuing to rebound in ways felt by everyday people, Trump repeatedly putting his foot in his mouth like he did in 2020, and Biden not shitting the bed in front of half the electorate. Needless to say, that’s not how things transpired. Public opinion on the state of the economy did not meaningfully budge. Trump, finally learning from some of his mistakes, has run a comparatively more subdued and disciplined campaign than he did in 2016 and 2020. And, well, the debate happened.

A path to victory can seem plausible from a distance but then vanish during the approach if too many factors that have to go right instead go wrong. The reality is that Biden was a poor candidate. In June 2022, I wrote a piece arguing that the Democrats should replace Biden:

“How can you run a guy who cannot debate, who can’t string together sentences, who cannot ever be allowed in front of a camera or a mic again? It doesn’t matter how terrible you think Trump or the Republicans are. I happily voted for Biden. I’d have voted for a sack of potatoes over Donald Trump. And if Biden runs again, that’s literally what I’ll be doing — but it’s delusional to suppose that a majority of the electorate would join me. Even if the economy rebounds, prices fall, and the stock market bounces back; even if Ukraine prevails in a way that the Biden Administration can take credit for — the public is left with the reality of a leader without a mind. Not a moron, like Bush. Not an egomaniacal clown, like Trump. An echo. An after image. Weekend at Biden’s. The White House Vegetable Garden. President Terri Schiavo.”

The Schiavo bit was perhaps a low blow. I had hoped, in some small way, to shock people awake. Of the five strategies I sketched (some serious, others tongue-in-cheek), the Democratic Party ended up carrying out strategy number two: Kamala 2024. It may however turn out to be two years too late. The timing of Biden dropping out took all the wind out of Trump’s sails, deflating the boost of Trump getting shot, choosing a running mate, and having a convention, but Harris still faces an uphill battle without a lot of time. The 2024 race has been, if not remade anew, at least vigorously shaken up. I find myself pondering 10 thoughts.

1. How did the Dems ever let it get to this point?

The miscalculation the Democrats made in backing Joe Biden’s re-election bid for as long as they did was holding to time-honored traditions without regard for how unprecedented the current circumstances are. In a way, their problem was that they were too philosophically conservative. Both major parties have historically backed their own incumbent presidents for re-election by consolidating behind them and not allowing robust primary challenges. There are three notable exceptions. In 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson was maneuvered into dropping out in favor of his vice president, Hubert Humphrey. In 1976, President Gerald Ford faced a strong primary challenge from former Governor Ronald Reagan. And in 1980, President Jimmy Carter was primaried by Senator Ted Kennedy. In all three instances, the incumbent (or incumbent’s party) went on to lose.

In the more than 40 since Carter lost, it has become conventional beltway wisdom for parties to quash any attempt at a real primary challenge to an incumbent president, lest it weaken them in the general election. Under ordinary conditions, this wisdom would be prudent. This was why the Dem establishment backed Biden for so long. And while that game plan was in place, all of the “this is fine” dog-in-burning-room spin was exactly what you’d expect from Dem foot soldiers and partisans. What the Democratic Party elders didn’t not factor in, however, was that they were running the oldest incumbent in American history, and one who was severely impaired. If this were a 68-year-old Joe Biden, even with flagging approval numbers, changing horses would be riskier than backing the incumbent. But an 81-year-old Biden who has to be assiduously managed and sheltered is another story entirely. Biden’s campaign, advisors, and handlers, along with the Democratic Party high-ups, evidently thought they could keep all of the necessary plates spinning — until they came crashing down. There’s a lesson to be learned in this: conventional wisdom is valuable, but new circumstances may require new strategies.

2. Joe Biden is a patriot

Letting go of power is an incredibly difficult thing for anyone. But the level of self-sacrifice required for someone who has spent the past half century climbing the ladder to step aside for the greater good is remarkable. For a guy who has worked as long as Biden has in trying to get to where he is right now, and who has lost as much as he has along the way, including a wife, a daughter, and a son, it shows real character to let go of the reins of power. It’s a bit of a throwback to the first American president, George Washington, who voluntarily turned down extraordinary powers in order to set the right precedents.¹ Can anyone imagine Donald Trump doing similarly, or even just putting the interests of someone else above his own?

3. Kamala Harris is the right choice to replace Biden

There are three reasons for this. First, as one half of the previous Biden-Harris ticket, Harris can utilize Biden’s war chest of funds. Republicans are already mounting legal challenges in an attempt to block this, but those challenges will take time, most will probably be struck down, and the rest will be easily circumvented thanks to the US’s shoddy campaign finance regulations. Second, Harris has far higher name recognition than anyone else in the Dem roster. Four months from an election, it’s not ideal to have to waste time and resources just getting the electorate to know that your candidate exists. Third, while Harris is a stronger candidate than Biden, this whole gambit of replacing one with the other at this late juncture is still a political Hail Mary that is more likely than not to fail. From the Democrats’ point of view, it’s best not to burn a true rising star on a low-percentage play that could hamstring their future prospects by leaving them with the clinging stink of a loser.

4. Can Kamala Harris shake her optics problem?

For the past five years, Kamala Harris has found herself trapped within a political tautology: she’s unlikeable because she’s unlikeable. Yeah, but why is she unlikeable? No one can produce anything substantive. Republicans hate her as they hate all Democrats, for the crime of being a Democrat — everything else works backward from that conclusion. Far leftists hated her in the 2020 primaries for her tough-on-crime prosecutorial zeal as a district attorney and later attorney general in California — often expressed in the refrain, “Kamala is a cop.” Of course, most of those same people hated Biden in 2020 too, and yet they voted for him, and they’ll do so again for Harris. In any event, being disliked by the far left is one of the most sterling endorsements any Democrat who wants to win a general election could possibly tout.

For the majority of the voters in play, however, there really isn’t anything in Kamala Harris’s record, ideology, policy agenda, or character that people dislike. Some of this dislike is very superficial, and probably, if we’re being honest, a little sexist (though, as we’ll get into more later, there is truly nothing to be politically gained by harping on this). People dislike her style. They dislike her pantsuits. They dislike the way she carries herself. They really dislike the sound of her cackles. But mostly, what people react negatively to is the inexpert way in which she goes with whichever way the wind is blowing.

All politicians pander, flip-flop, and pivot, of course, but even those of middling talent do so with a kind of salesmanship and polish that Harris lacks. A skilled politician is completely full of shit, but they can connect with the electorate enough to win their votes. Harris struggled with this in 2020, but it seems like a fixable problem. It might come down to adjustments as simple as getting Harris to stop laughing in public and shifting her abortive attempts at soaring rhetoric to a more down-to-earth style.

5. Trump is the geezer now

The main argument against Joe Biden was age. Now the tables have turned. Harris, at 59, is 19 years younger than the 78-year-old Trump, and should take advantage of this new dynamic at every conceivable opportunity. This is a four-month sprint to the finish line. Harris should be doing twice as many events and appearances as Trump. At every campaign stop, she should be jogging up to the microphone and bounding on and off the stage. While Donald shuffles around, heaving his bulk into golf carts and doing that weird little dance that looks like he’s jerking two guys off, Harris should be in constant motion like the energizer bunny.

6. Was Harris complicit in the “cover-up” of Biden’s decline?

John Adams, who was America’s first vice president before becoming its second president, once described the Office of the Vice Presidency as “the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.” Beyond a few procedural responsibilities, the vice president basically exists as a contingency in the event that the president dies or becomes incapacitated. Most vice presidents in US history, with a handful of very rare exceptions such as Dick Cheney, have been relatively minor players in their administrations. They’re typically relegated to a ceremonial role, spending their days cutting ribbons, meeting people not important enough to warrant the president’s time, and doing other thankless tasks. Was Harris one of the Cheney-like exceptions? Well, when she got COVID-19 in April 2022, the Office of the Vice President was quick to issue a press release assuring the public that “she has not been a close contact to the President or First Lady.” 

That being said, Kamala Harris absolutely knew about Biden’s decline. I can say that with certainty because I knew about Joe Biden’s decline. Everyone knew. If this was some kind of “cover-up”, it was the most inept cover-up in history. The question is, what exactly was she supposed to do? The job of the vice president is to be a team player. The Trump supporters who are slamming Harris over the supposed crime of political loyalty should understand this quite well. After all, on January 6th, 2021, when Vice President Mike Pence summoned his last remaining shred of decency and refused to aid Donald Trump in stealing an election, Trump supporters gathered in force at the US Capitol — complete with rope and gallows — in order to hang him! You can’t demand absolute loyalty on pain of death from your side while also demanding that the other side stab one another in the back at the earliest opportunity. Trumpists and hypocrisy, name a more iconic duo.

7. Who knew right wingers cared so much about Dem primary voters?

In the wake of Biden stepping aside, Republicans across the country have discovered a newfound interest in the rights of Democratic primary voters. Biden’s voluntary decision to suspend his campaign is being characterized as a “coup”, and partisan GOP hacks like Sean Hannity are busy collapsing onto their fainting couches over the gross injustice done to poor Democratic primary voters who have no say in any of this! “Joe Biden is the democratically elected nominee!” Never mind that, as previously mentioned, there was no robust primary to begin with. Or that two-thirds of registered Dems wanted Biden to drop out. Or that the Democratic convention has not yet taken place. Journalist Jesse Singal put it best:

“I guess I'm just getting more and more confused about who is the victim here. There seems to be this outpouring of concern from people who hate Democrats that Democrats were disenfranchised, but actual voting Dems don't seem to feel that way?”

I mean, I get it. Biden 2024 was a dream candidate to run against. Who wouldn’t want a corpse for an opponent? But these crocodile tears are shameless even by the standards of the GOP, which is a profound statement.

8. Will J.D. Vance’s “childless cat ladies” comment come back to bite him?

In the days since Trump selected Ohio Junior Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate,² a Vance sound bite has been making the rounds. While campaigning for his Senate seat in 2021, Vance appeared on Fox News and said that the US is effectively run, via the Democrats, by “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too.” He went on to broaden his criticism beyond that particular trope to childless people as a whole, suggesting that adults who don’t have biological offspring have less of a stake in the future and thus make poorer leaders. In recent days, Vance has doubled down on these comments.

Setting aside the ethics of such gross generalizations, politically, this may come back to haunt the Trump-Vance ticket. While the remarks played well in Ohio — once the foremost political bellwether in the country and now a safe red state — on the national stage, they are a huge blunder. As more people opt to have children later or not at all, the share of the electorate without children has grown over the years. According to the US Census, approximately 38 percent of adults have no biological children — 101 million voting-age people. 46 million are women, and they’re not all DEI trainers or HR ladies. Trump is ahead in the polls, but in the event that Harris stages a comeback victory, Vance’s “childless cat ladies” remark may end up looking a lot like Hillary Clinton’s 2016 “basket of deplorables” gaffe.

9. Identity politics could torpedo Harris’s campaign

If the Democrats lean into identity politics, they will lose. That’s not to say that avoiding identity politics will necessarily lead to victory, but that embracing them will guarantee defeat. Yes, Kamala Harris will face some racism and sexism, but people have to be allowed to voice legitimate criticism, disagreement, and disapproval without the K-Hive mind calling them white supremacists and misogynists. The cultural left has a disgusting habit of using the bigotry of a few as a pretext to render entire swaths of speech verboten. Anyone who does this in the context of the 2024 race is effectively campaigning for Donald Trump. I suspect that many social justice types probably won’t be able to help themselves. It will fall to the rest of the anti-Trump coalition to loudly and brutally excoriate this behavior wherever it occurs. 

10. Should Biden resign?

In the aftermath of Biden stepping aside, as part of their “throw everything against the wall until something sticks” strategy, Republicans have been calling for Biden to go one step further and resign the presidency. However, they appear not to have thought this demand through. If Biden resigns, Kamala Harris becomes the president, gaining the incumbency along with significant opportunities to reshape her public image in ways campaigning alone would never allow. President Kamala Harris is a much stronger candidate than Vice President Kamala Harris.

So should Biden resign? From a governance perspective, there have been past presidents who stayed in office despite poor health and diminished capacities, and the country managed. Is it ideal? No. But it’s been done before. From a political perspective, whether or not Biden should resign hinges on the outcome one wants to see in November. If you want to see Trump defeated, then yes, Biden should resign. That was my third strategy in the aforementioned 2022 essay about replacing Biden. Republicans, be careful what you wish for.

See also: “When More Democracy Is Less: The Paradox Of Primaries”

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1. I might be the only person to compare Joe Biden to Terri Schiavo and George Washington in the same article.

2. Johan Pregmo and I wrote a satirical piece involving J.D. Vance in 2022: “Shitkicker Elegy.”