I think it's fair to say that in the long term there could be some kind of realignment, but nothing super extreme. I don't think we can say for certain how things will shake out in the coming decades, especially given the populist forces you mention. I just finished reading Chris Stirewalt's Broken News and he put it really well that the ideal realignment would be liberals and conservatives recognizing that they have more in common than their progressive and nationalist populist brethren. That requires an overt decoupling from the supposed first principles espoused by the progressives and nationalists, which requires a shared agreement (lol sure that'll happen) that the progressives and nationalists don't get to dictate the conversation on things. My ideal vision is simply seeing four separate parties that aren't complete bitch-asses who have to try and capture the spirit of a mere two parties, but I'd settle for a realignment of the two existing ones toward something like liberal/conservative vs progressive/nationalist. The Democrats pretending to be super progressive and the Republicans pretending to be super nationalist has only made them both more detestable than they've ever been in my lifetime. They've become so obviously captured by authoritarian forces that most Americans have no interest in indulging.
Good points. I agree, the "realignment" is not happening as fast as people say it is. It is happening, but not at that 1960/1964 level. The anticapitalist conservatives like Sohrab Ahmari are not mainstream figures yet.
Good article. Although your point that “self-described progressives now lead the charge to censor opponents and make the digital landscape “safe” from views that disagree with their own”, is similar to the realignment issue in that it’s something that gets repeated over and over again but I’ve never seen any evidence to back it.
In fact, it seems that conservatives are the anti-free speech group with their attempts to ban everything from books to drag shows via legislation. You’d think if progressives were so eager to legislate speech there’d be similar attempts coming from the left, say to ban Covid misinformation or make racist speech illegal, but there hasn’t been.
Would love to see an article where you dive into that and maybe change your own mind (or mine if the evidence you find stacks up)
A few points...the "party switch" of the 60s+ is largely also not supported in a wide amount of data. It was a very slow trend over many years/decadeds largely driven by specific issues that appeared or didn't in the party platforms during voting years.
I would love to see your analysis around specific issues, rather than class. Free Speech, Border Security, Support for large businesses, Vaccine autonomy are some issues where there appears to have been a realignment in recent years.
I will check this out, thanks for bringing it to my attention. I'll be curious to see how this study accounts for all of the data that seems to suggest the precise opposite.
I think it's fair to say that in the long term there could be some kind of realignment, but nothing super extreme. I don't think we can say for certain how things will shake out in the coming decades, especially given the populist forces you mention. I just finished reading Chris Stirewalt's Broken News and he put it really well that the ideal realignment would be liberals and conservatives recognizing that they have more in common than their progressive and nationalist populist brethren. That requires an overt decoupling from the supposed first principles espoused by the progressives and nationalists, which requires a shared agreement (lol sure that'll happen) that the progressives and nationalists don't get to dictate the conversation on things. My ideal vision is simply seeing four separate parties that aren't complete bitch-asses who have to try and capture the spirit of a mere two parties, but I'd settle for a realignment of the two existing ones toward something like liberal/conservative vs progressive/nationalist. The Democrats pretending to be super progressive and the Republicans pretending to be super nationalist has only made them both more detestable than they've ever been in my lifetime. They've become so obviously captured by authoritarian forces that most Americans have no interest in indulging.
Good points. I agree, the "realignment" is not happening as fast as people say it is. It is happening, but not at that 1960/1964 level. The anticapitalist conservatives like Sohrab Ahmari are not mainstream figures yet.
I think it very much remains to be seen. But I'm open to seeing it, and things can change at any time.
Good article. Although your point that “self-described progressives now lead the charge to censor opponents and make the digital landscape “safe” from views that disagree with their own”, is similar to the realignment issue in that it’s something that gets repeated over and over again but I’ve never seen any evidence to back it.
In fact, it seems that conservatives are the anti-free speech group with their attempts to ban everything from books to drag shows via legislation. You’d think if progressives were so eager to legislate speech there’d be similar attempts coming from the left, say to ban Covid misinformation or make racist speech illegal, but there hasn’t been.
Would love to see an article where you dive into that and maybe change your own mind (or mine if the evidence you find stacks up)
A few points...the "party switch" of the 60s+ is largely also not supported in a wide amount of data. It was a very slow trend over many years/decadeds largely driven by specific issues that appeared or didn't in the party platforms during voting years.
I would love to see your analysis around specific issues, rather than class. Free Speech, Border Security, Support for large businesses, Vaccine autonomy are some issues where there appears to have been a realignment in recent years.
Are you aware of this study on how the rich vote? They seem to be steadily moving from GOP to Dem over the last three decades.
https://www.betterconflictbulletin.org/p/the-rich-used-to-vote-red-not-anymore
I will check this out, thanks for bringing it to my attention. I'll be curious to see how this study accounts for all of the data that seems to suggest the precise opposite.